Innovation and technological progress: Measurement, Prediction, Policy

Innovation is ubiquitous, from breakthroughs in Generative AI to mRNA vaccines to robot vacuum cleaners. Advances in clean energy generation and storage are crucial to the green transition in the economy, while automation and productivity advances allow for more wealth being generated with less work. But innovation is also contested: Monopolization of knowledge in large companies leads to inequality, automation threatens to disempower workers, and dominance in the production of advanced technologies is a crucial battlefield in the geoeconomic contest between large economic blocs. Many of the questions in this context depend on both being able to accurately measure technological progress in different areas, on being able to predict precisely which technologies will become dominant, and on being able to shape the direction of future technological developments.

In this seminar, we will learn and apply data-driven methods of measuring, predicting, and influencing technological progress. We will mostly work with large-scale data on patents as imprints of technological developments, but other projects will also be considered and suggested. The seminar will consist of several introductory lectures at the beginning, with most of the semester being spent with individual projects under the direct supervision of the lecturers with the goal of writing a seminar thesis.

Please note: As the projects will almost always involve data analysis or modeling, basic knowledge in programming is mandatory. We would recommend that you have some working knowledge in either R or Python, although other programming languages are also acceptable. Basic knowledge would be attained if you have for example passed any one of the following courses: Computational Economics I or II, Empirical Economics I or II, Introductory Empirical Economics (Grundlagen der empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung) or the seminar on Agent-Based Modeling. If you have doubts about this point, please get in touch with the lecturers.